Tycuda Group’s Monthly Report

At the Tycuda Group we promote transparency and try to keep our clients updated every step of the way. In hopes that we can continue to provide useful information, we have created a monthly investment report that will be included in our monthly newsletter and posted below. In this investment report you can expect highlights of important themes in the market, trade spotlights from our models and whatever else is on our minds!

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More On Interest Rates

Interest rates can be the canary in the mineshaft regarding the economy and markets.

 
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What’s up with Interest Rates and Mortgages?

The interest rate used in Canada’s mortgage stress tests has fallen for the first time since 2016, making it slightly easier to become a homeowner, maybe…

 
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Will you outlive your savings?

The average Canadian will live about 10 years longer than their savings, according to a new study by the World Economic Forum.

 
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What is up with inflation? Or, what’s down with inflation?

Yesterday's message suggested that weaker commodity prices should provide some comfort to the Fed since subdued inflation would allow the Fed to keep rates on hold and prolong the decade-long economic recovery.

 
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S&P 500 CONTINUES TO TEST LAST YEAR'S HIGH 

The 2019 stock market rally has reached another important technical test. The chart below shows the S&P 500 challenging last September's intra-day record near 2940.

 
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Voter-Friendly Bag Leaves Little Room For Error

The backdrop to today’s budget was a familiar one: positive fiscal developments had given the government the option to plot a path of less borrowing or more spending…

 
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Somebody Call 9-1-1

...And, no, not because there is an emergency on the border—it’s up to the reader to decide whether that’s the case. And, no, not because markets are struggling mightily—it’s quite the opposite, with stocks rolling higher yet again this week.

 
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Can’t Sleep?

As an investor, January has been all about what is keeping you up at night.  Here is a prologue to issues, we’ll include links to what some other professionals are concerned about as well.

 
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Year in Review

It was a long December. Normally, the final thought is dedicated to summarizing the year, and highlighting key emerging trends. The 2018 financial markets ended with equities, oil, and bond yields all caught in a tailspin.

 
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TFSA Increase

The TFSA contribution limit for 2019 has increased to $6,000.00 (up from the previous $5,500.00). The total lifetime TFSA contribution limit for an individual who has never contributed since 2009 (and was of legal age) is $63,500.00 as of January 1, 2019.

 
 
 
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Fear and greed

Global markets have remained volatile over the last week as we have moved into quarterly earnings season. North American stocks have seen violent adjustments in reaction to earnings reports….

 
 
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Bubbles and Cannabis

Almost daily, there are headlines about pot stocks. The stocks are much akin to a roller coaster ride given the price swings. Most cannabis stocks only trade in Canada plus some that trade via American Depository Receipts (ADRs) in the USA….

 
 
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Trump and Trade

Mexico agrees to Trump’s terms. The media reports Trudeau had a constructive call with Trump and that Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland has gone to Washington….

 
 
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What’s up with the seasonality of investing?

Though not always the case, the chart below shows the weakest time to invest is usually between May and October, with the most extreme being mid-August to mid-October…

 
 
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What’s the best thing about the end of June?      

I read the following recently. Lessons for investors to date in 2018 have been that its dangerous to be complacent and risks may hide for a while, but they don’t go away. And we are reminded of the old saying that history doesn’t repeat, it rhymes ….

 
 
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Currency and Oil

Expectations are building that OPEC will end an output deal that has been in place since the start of 2017 due to concerns about supplies from Venezuela and Iran. Venezuela’s output has fallen amid an economic crisis, while Iran’s supply is threatened by U.S. sanctions….

 
 
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Tragedy too close to home.

The recent madness of an individual stole 10 innocent lives and injures 14 more on Yonge Street in Toronto.  The countless friends and relatives are in mourning and grieving along with a country in shock….

 
 
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Volatility, and lots of it!

Our universe will eventually fade to darkness as the stars run out of energy, theorized Stephen Hawking only weeks before his death. Steven Hawking was famous for not only being a brilliant theoretical physicist, but for simply living a long life….

 
 
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Markets Got You Down? Technically, They Shouldn’t!

In February, we got a wakeup call. The S&P/TSX Composite dropped about 8.5% and the S&P500 dropped just over 10%. These markets have rallied back about 50% from the selloff. Despite all this, Technical Analysts note that looking at recent “internals”….